New Car Models Won't Save Tesla
Looking back years from now, we'll realize that Tesla's car sales peaked in 2023. Compared to 2023, Tesla's sales in 2024 declined by 1.1%. This is just the beginning. In January 2025, Tesla's sales in Europe dropped by 47.7% compared to last year.
Some attribute the sales problem to Tesla not launching new models for many years. This is not the case. The Tesla Cybertruck was launched less than two years ago, but this vehicle's sales have been extremely poor. Due to difficulties in reducing inventory, price reductions began this month.
Musk suffers from a kind of "existential anxiety" - perhaps psychology has a more appropriate term, such as "narcissistic personality disorder." Despite being the world's wealthiest person, he pathologically seeks attention. While past capitalists may have participated in politics, none were as obvious as Musk, who even spent enormous sums to purchase a social media platform to broadcast his inappropriate behavior worldwide.
Musk's various behaviors have caused Tesla to bear the consequences. Today, in some parts of America, driving a Tesla requires mentally enduring "Tesla shame" - sometimes being cut off in traffic or receiving middle fingers. Model 3 or Model Y owners fare better because these older models allow owners to use the excuse: "I bought this before Elon went crazy." However, Cybertruck buyers, whose vehicle only began mass production in 2024, clearly cannot use this reason, so they often face more intense treatment from Musk opponents, such as having stickers like "Nazis Go Away" placed on their vehicles.
The situation is worse in continental Europe, which gave birth to Hitler and has stronger anti-Nazi sentiment. While American opponents organize weekend protests at Tesla stores, German opponents directly projected Musk's controversial Nazi gesture onto the outer wall of the Berlin Gigafactory.
In investor calls, Musk has positioned cheaper new models as the lifeline to rescue Tesla's declining sales. By the Cybertruck's performance and the bullying it has experienced, new models are unlikely to improve Tesla's sales.
What has supported Tesla's high valuation (although it has decreased considerably this year) isn't just car sales, but also Musk's other boasts, such as Full Self-Driving (FSD) and humanoid robots. Anyone slightly familiar with Musk knows he's addicted to exaggeration, and his statements have extremely low credibility. Regarding autonomous driving, here's a timeline of Musk's predictions over the years:
2014: Claimed full self-driving would be achieved in 5-6 years
2016: Predicted coast-to-coast autonomous driving by the end of 2018
2017: Claimed full self-driving would be achieved in 2 years
2019: Said there would be 1 million autonomous taxis on the road by 2020; claimed FSD would be "basically complete" by the end of 2020
2021: Stated FSD Beta would reach safety levels surpassing humans within months
2022: Predicted FSD would reach full autonomous driving levels by year-end
2023: Claimed FSD would achieve Level 4 autonomy in 2024
As of October 2024, Tesla's FSD Beta remains at Level 2 assisted driving, requiring constant driver supervision.
Throughout Tesla's development, Musk has repeatedly exaggerated the production capacity of its products. These falsehoods might never have been realized, like his autonomous driving claims, but fortunately, he received support from the Chinese government. China first allowed Tesla to establish a wholly foreign-owned factory in Shanghai. In retrospect, setting up a factory in China was the only answer to achieve the production capacity Musk boasted about, as only China offered affordable, quality labor and a mature, developed supply chain. Not to mention the policy support that continued even during the pandemic.
China's policies propelled Musk to become the world's richest person. China gained even more: without Tesla, China's electric vehicles, no matter how good, would likely still face global discrimination—the perception that EVs lack technological sophistication and are only pursued by Chinese manufacturers.
China has experienced such discrimination in table tennis, which is why the Chinese team implemented a "wolf-raising plan," deliberately exporting players to improve foreign players' skills and prevent it from becoming a sport only Chinese people engage in. Supporting Tesla was the electric vehicle industry's wolf-raising plan. Internationally, questioning pure electric vehicle technology and products must first address Tesla.
Jia Yueting, who similarly made repeated exaggerations, didn't have such luck. If the policies given to Tesla had been given to Jia, perhaps his boasts could have been realized, and his brand, Faraday Future, wouldn't have produced fewer than ten cars. However, policies couldn't be given to Jia because, as a Chinese person, he wouldn't help change the global image of electric vehicles. Giving him policy support would ultimately result in a lose-lose situation. The wolf-raising plan continues today, with Lexus's pure electric vehicle factory set to be established in Shanghai's Jinshan district as a wholly owned enterprise similar to Tesla.
For the Chinese government, helping Musk become the world's richest person has yielded tremendous returns. Changing the image of electric vehicles worldwide has brought enormous benefits, as China has achieved a leapfrog development in the automotive industry through new energy vehicles. Who would have thought that Musk would later deeply involve himself in American politics? This was an additional gift to the Chinese government. Perhaps Musk truly has a serious narcissistic personality disorder, but what does it matter? After all, he's harming America.
Now, just over a month into Trump's presidency, with the assistance of his partner Musk, the situation has become chaotic. The more chaotic America becomes, the better for China. And under Trump and Musk's governance, America seems to be developing toward chaos. Trump's decisions don't necessarily benefit China; he initiated a trade war during his previous term. However, with Musk interfering under the guise of improving government efficiency, China has gained several more years of development time.
Remarkably, all this has come without China doing anything, making one marvel that it truly cannot be stopped when national fortune arrives. Perhaps Tesla's future sales will continue to decline, and Musk will lose his position as the world's richest person. Still, in the process of great power competition between China and the United States, he has already served his purpose, playing a significant role for the Chinese government.